WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.3N 124.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME FULLU EXPOSED  AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSIT ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND CIMSS ADT. 

WIND RADII BASIS: THERE ARE NO WIND RADII IN THE ANALYSIS.  

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 220230Z
  
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS 
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: HIGH OHC

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: 
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NA

3. FORECAST REASONING. 

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 
THE STEERING STR, CLIPPING THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON VIA LUZON STRAIT TOWARD HONG 
KONG. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 
A PEAK OF 55KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG. AFTER LANDFALL, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT CURRENTLY 
AVAILABLE DUE TO TECHNICAL ISSUES AT JTWC, AND THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS 
GENERATED FOLLOWING DETERMINISTIC MODEL FIELDS FOR NAVGEM, GFS, AND ECMWF WHICH 
ARE ALL IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL TRACK SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP OF 
LUZON, WITH ECMWF ON A SLOWER TRACK PATTERN. THEREFORE, JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A CONSENSUS BLEND OF ALL THREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. BASED ON THE LACK OF INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, JTWC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY, WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48 UP UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING AN IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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