WDIO31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.3N 64.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 196 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY A RAGGED, FULLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED WESTWARD 
OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 121730Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS. ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE STRONG 
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLY 
JET.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE COL OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST, THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   DEMS: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 121815Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 03A WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE COL
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO HIGH VWS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
24, LIKELY SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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