WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (AERE) WARNING 
NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 33.4N 131.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 55 NM SOUTH OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 9 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
UNRAVELED AND DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLLAPSED
AND DISPERSED AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF KYUSHU.
THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FAINT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
MSI AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS AND TRIANGULATED, DEDUCED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE WIND AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05W WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR, CROSSING THE ISLAND OF
SHIKOKU AND THE SOUTHERN POINT OF HONSHU BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW DOWN AS A
SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING AND, AFTER TAU 72,
DRIVE THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 40KTS AT TAUS 36 TO 48 AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY TRANSFORMS INTO A
SUBTROPICAL LOW.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 120. SOME SPREAD
REMAINS IN THE ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF THE TRACK AS THE DURING THE
CHANGE IN STEERING MECHANISM. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS IS MEDIUM FOR THE WHOLE DURATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN