WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (AERE) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 130.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 409 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST HAS CAUSED TS AERE TO TAKE
A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO ITS
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BUILDING MASS OF CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 302213Z SHOWS A WELL 
DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST POSITION. WITH THIS, THE JTWC INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF MULTIPLE AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 32 KTS AT 301712Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 010040Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST TRACK BEYOND TAU 72 IS NOW
PLACED MORE NORTHWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAX INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AT TAU 48.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS AERE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO STAYING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN 
INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWARD. BY TAU 36, TS 
AERE WILL BE PUSHED MORE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM 
THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, TS AERE WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY 
TO 55 KTS BEFORE PASSING OVER OKINAWA. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL 
BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK NORTHWARD. INTENSITY WILL 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND REACH THE MAX OF 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. BY 
TAU 72, TS AERE WILL MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY, BUT BEGIN TO FEEL 
THE STRAIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE COOLER WATERS (25-26C). AT 
THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING 
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRIVE IT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING TOWARDS THE 
KOREAN PENINSULA. AT TAU 120, LAND INTERACTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 
DISSIPATION OF TS AERE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH HAS A
SOLUTION THAT TAKES THE TRACK UNREASONABLY TO THE NORTHEAST VERY
QUICKLY. DUE TO THIS OUTLIER THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED TO THE LEFT
OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, THEN GRADUALLY
SPREAD APART BY 40 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE JTWC INTENSITY IS SET
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS FAVORING THE MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS
BEFORE TS 05W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AFTER TAU 72, AT WHICH THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MORE ALIGNED WITH CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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