WDIO31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.7N 81.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 585 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. COASTAL WINDS AND RADAR INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OVER WATER ALONG THE COAST NEAR MACHILIPATNAM, INDIA. THE WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THIS LOCATION WERE ONLY 9 KNOTS, WHILE 42 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AT VIJAYAMADA, INDIA, AT A HIGHER ELEVATION OF 68 FEET, WERE OBSERVED AT 25 KNOTS DURING THE APPROACH OF TC 02B. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE PARTIAL 110448Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT 40 KNOTS AS THERE WERE 40KT WIND BARBS ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, MULTIPLE FIX AGENCIES AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) HAVE BEEN INDICATING THE WEAKENING TREND. THE 110515Z ADT ESTIMATE INDICATED 51 KNOTS, BUT AT 110615Z ADT INDICATED THE SYSTEM WAS OVERLAND. THE ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE STORM NEARS THE SHORE. THERE REMAINS MOSTLY WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE 110448Z ASCAT 25KM PASS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SSW THROUGH NNE FROM OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL FROM CHENNAI THROUGH KOLKATA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) MOST LIKELY HAS MADE LANDFALL DURING THE TIME BETWEEN 0600Z AND 0900Z. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE BAY OF BENGAL WHILE IT DECAYS RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WARM BOB AND REGENERATE AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER WATER. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE TOO STRONG AND WILL CAP ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COMPLETELY CHANGED ON THE LATEST RUN. THEY ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DIVERGE DRASTICALLY AND LOSE ANY SEMBLANCE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH THE INTENSITY DECREASING BELOW 30KTS BY TAU 24. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE BOB AND DECREASE BELOW 25KTS BETWEEN TAUS 36-48. DUE TO THE WEAKENING INTENSITY TRENDS AND DIVERGING MODEL ENVELOPE, THIS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JWTC TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN