WDIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WARNING NR 
014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.3N 81.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 576 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS CONSTANT
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A CENTRAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TYPHOON ASANI IS STILL MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
COAST OF INDIA, AND IF IT REMAINS AT THE CONSTANT SPEED OF 11
KNOTS, IT WILL REACH LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS NEAR
GUDIVADA, INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, AS INDICATED BY WELL-TIMED 101207Z GMI 89GHZ AND 37GHZ
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AS IT REMAINS A BLEND OF MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B IS IN AN AREA MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MOSTLY WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
MALAY PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THAILAND AND MYANMAR. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 80 KTS AT 101345Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02B WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST OF INDIA AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
TURN TO AN INCREASINGLY POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IS
FORECASTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST AND THEN EXIT BACK
INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) NEAR VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ONCE OVER
THE BOB, TC 02B WILL AGAIN ENCOUNTER WARM WATER, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED 
TO REGAIN INTENSITY AS IT WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR AND STRONGER 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE WIND SHEAR WILL ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE 
SYSTEM, AND THE WEAKER THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITHIN THE LAST SIX
HOURS AND INDICATES THE OVERALL TRACK CURVING TOWARDS THE INDIAN
COAST. GFS REMAINS ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE
NAVGEM REMAINS ON THE LEFT. THE ENVELOPE HAS DECREASED IN THE
OVERALL SPREAD OF 120NM BY 36 HOURS OVERLAND. BECAUSE OF THIS,
THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS
LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES THAT ARE ALSO HELD CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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