WDIO31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.9N 82.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 577 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INTENSE,
CONVECTIVE BURSTS WRAPPING AROUND A CENTRAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE POSITION UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
STRONG DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. TYPHOON ASANI HAS TAKEN A SHARP
LEFT TURN TOWARDS THE COAST OF INDIA OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS
SEEN ON THE MSI LOOP. JTWC DVORAK ASSESSMENT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
SATCON AND ADT AS SEEN BELOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC IS OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION AND
POSITIONED WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY FIX POSITIONS ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AS IT IS A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
MALAY PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THAILAND AND MYANMAR. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 71 KTS AT 100146Z
   CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 100315Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02B WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN TO AN
INCREASINGLY POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE 36 HOURS AS IS FORECASTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS NEAR THE EASTER INDIA COAST
BETWEEN GUDIVADA AND EXIT NEAR VISHAKHAPATNAM BY TAU 72. ONCE THE
SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS BACK INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL (BOB), IT WILL
ENCOUNTER WARM WATER, HOWEVER, IT WILL BE OFFSET BY A SHARP DROP IN
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND DRIER OFF-SHORE FLOW WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR WILL ULTIMATELY WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH IN THE NORTHERN BOB.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED WITHIN THE LAST SIX
HOURS AND INDICATES THE OVERALL TRACK CURVING TOWARDS THE INDIAN
COAST. GFS REMAINS ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE
NAVGEM REMAINS ON THE LEFT. THE ENVELOPE HAS DECREASED IN THE
OVERALL SPREAD OF 120NM BY 36 HOURS OVERLAND. BECAUSE OF THIS,
THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS
LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES THAT ARE ALSO HELD CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN