WDIO31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.7N 88.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 654 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INTENSE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION, VORTICAL HOT TOWERS, FLARING WITHIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OBSERVED AS COLD AS -94.0C. A 080408Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE COINCIDENT 080411Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 60-65 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THIS INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080409Z ASCAT-B AMBIGUITY PRODUCT, WHICH SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. DESPITE INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN VIGOROUS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A COMPACT CDO AND VORTICAL HOT TOWERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE, ASCAT-B DATA AND UW- CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 080151Z CIMSS ADT: 65 KTS AT 080315Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 31-32 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. DUE TO THE COMPACT CORE AND ROBUST OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 24, TC 02B WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 75 KNOTS AT TAU 12 TO TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS EASTERLY VWS INCREASES TO 30-35 KNOTS AND OUTFLOW DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING WESTERLIES OVER NORTHEAST INDIA WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE STR ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN POLEWARD. AFTER TAU 72, TC 02B WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NAVGEM REMAINS THE WESTERN MOST OUTLIER, IT NOW INDICATES A SHARP RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK TOWARD KOLKATA, INDIA AND BANGLADESH WITH AFUM TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO NORTHEAST INDIA AND GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO MYANMAR. THE 080000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) STRIKE PROBABILITY PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF INDIA. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72 SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH A SHORT WINDOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY. TC 02B COULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY IF IT TRACKS CLOSER TO LAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN