WDPN31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 24.8N 139.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 87 NM WEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 21 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TY 02W BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH THE ENVELOPE OF CLOUDS EXPANDING POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING JET. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS GRADUALLY DEGRADING, WITH A LOSS OF INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND SPORADIC FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 141907Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS SATCON. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 88 KTS AT 141614Z CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 141740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY IMPACTED BY MID-LATITUDE DYNAMICS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS JAPAN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND INCREASING WITH TIME. AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 24 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM IS FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 90 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN