WDPN31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.9N 139.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 162 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE, INTENSE, SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A COLD DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS COMPLETELY OBSCURED AN EYE FEATURE. TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 141151Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 141140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALAKAS WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES TO 30KTS+, SST COOLS DOWN TO 24C AND LESS, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION REACHES THE LLC. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 12 AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24. THE COMBINED EFFECT WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AND BY TAU 36, TY 02W WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS AND TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL, EVEN, AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO JUST 125NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN