WDPN31 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.8N 138.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 237 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE, INTENSE, SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A COLD DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS SLIGHTLY WARMED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, IN ADDITION TO A RECENTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY COOLING SST AND THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WEST-NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 123 KTS AT 140346Z CIMSS ADT: 129 KTS AT 140250Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 25-26 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALAKAS WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE AS VWS INCREASES TO 30KTS+, SST COOLS DOWN TO 24C, AND DRY AIR INTRUSION REACHES THE LLC, ALL BY TAU 12. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 12 AND COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. THE COMBINED EFFECT WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AND BY TAU 48, TY 02W WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS AND TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL, EVEN, AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO JUST 126NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN