WDPN31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.6N 138.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 311 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE SYSTEM AS THE EYEWALL IS NOW ONLY 10NM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE WELL-DEFINED 10NM EYE ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND IS MORE IN RELATION WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH LIE BETWEEN T5.0 TO T6.0 (90-115KTS). THE EYE TEMPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY TO -14C, FROM 9C SIX HOURS PRIOR. THE COOLER EYE, COMBINED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS, GIVES FURTHER INDICATION THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PEAKED. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DRY, STABLE AIR WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC NOW, PREVENTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, CAPPING THE DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A PARTIAL 140043Z METOP-B ASCAT, FOR THE EASTERN REGION. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 130 KTS AT 130040Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALAKAS IS CONTINUING TO TRACK NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE PEAK INTENSITY AT 115 KNOTS AND IS NOW ON A DOWNWARD TREND. TY MALAKAS IS BEGINNING TO SEE THE INITIAL EFFECTS OF THE DRIER AIR-ENTRAINING IN FROM THE WEST, AND THE UPWELLING IT HAS CAUSED ON THE OCEAN SURFACE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM AND COMPOUND QUICKLY AS DRY AIR INCREASES AND WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE, FOLLOWED BY HIGHER VWS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM ENCROACHES THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, IT WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 48, TY MALAKA WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSITION TO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW-PRESSURE AREA, AS THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 200MB POLAR FRONT JET STREAM, DEVELOPING STRONG FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WITH A GRADUAL AND VERY NARROW 102NM SPREAD AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE MODELS ALL CONCUR ON RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST CONCURS WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO AND IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL ICNW, LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN