WDPN31 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.7N 137.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 369 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHT EROSION OF THE NOW 18NM EYEWALL, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS SEEN ON THE 131639Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMAGE AND THE WELL-DEFINED 20NM EYE ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND IS MORE IN RELATION WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH ARE BETWEEN T5.0 TO T5.5 (90-102KTS). OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE EYE TEMPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY FROM 14C TO NOW 9C. THIS GIVES THE FIRST HINT AT THE DOWNWARD TREND, ALONG WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE DRY, STABLE AIR, WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE, INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 131635Z CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 131740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: LIMITED OUTFLOW AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALAKAS IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MAINTAINING THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ERODING AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DRY AIR ON THE WEST SIDE IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE OUTER CORE AND WILL BEGIN WRAPPING AROUND THE INNER CORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, IT WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING MORE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THERE IS A BIT OF UPWELLING NOTICED BY THIS STRONG SYSTEM AND THOSE DECREASING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BY TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH. THESE LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STIFLE THE SYSTEMS AVAILABLE HEAT CONTENT AND BEGIN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36. STRONGER SHEAR WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48, WHICH WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE COMPLETION OF THE ETT. TRANSITION TO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD- CORE EXTRATROPICAL LOW-PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 200MB POLAR FRONT JET STREAM AND DEVELOPS STRONG FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD WITH A VERY NARROW 132NM AT TAU 72. ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS TIGHTLY PACKED EVEN AT TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS LIMITED DURING THIS CYCLE, BUT OVERALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS ALL CONCUR ON RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST CONCURS WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO BUT DEPARTS FROM THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED AS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN