WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.3N 136.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 527 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 34 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 20-25NM CLOUD-FILLED, RAGGED EYE. A 122220Z 
AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND 
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ISOLATED TO THE EASTERN 
AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND 
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES 
REMAIN AGGRESSIVE AT 125 KNOTS WHILE AIDT ESTIMATES ARE 112 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 125 KTS AT 130140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 02W HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH COULD ALLOW TY 02W TO REACH A MAX INTENSITY
OF 110 KNOTS OR GREATER BY TAU 12. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AFTER TAU 36,
TY 02W WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE ACCELERATING POLEWARD. AS
ETT PROGRESSES, THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN
EASTWARD PROPAGATING TROUGH AND STRONG JET. BY TAU 72, AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED JET, VWS WILL INCREASE TO
40-50 KNOTS WITH COLD SSTS (17C) AND A FULLY COLD CORE STRUCTURE.
CONSEQUENTLY, TY 02W BECOMES FRONTAL IN NATURE AND DEVOID OF ANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THEREBY COMPLETING ETT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 120NM SPREAD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 110 KNOTS AT TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WEAKENING TREND.
COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND DECAY-SHIPS SHOW A SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT FOLLOWING
TAU 12 LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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