WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 135.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 573 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE,
RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH FRAGMENTED EYEWALL CONVECTION ON THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, A 121614Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPLETE EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 40NM EYE
WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE GMI IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90-102 KNOTS. THE
CIMMS ADT ESTIMATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AT 115-120 KTS WHILE
THE AIDT ESTIMATES ARE MORE REALISTIC AT 105 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 90 KTS AT 121654Z
   CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 121740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 02W HAS SETTLED ON A NORTHEASTWARD 
COURSE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
CREATE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW TY 02W TO 
REACH A MAX INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS OR GREATER. BETWEEN TAU 24 TO TAU 
36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) 
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE 
AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. AFTER TAU 36, TY 02W 
WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE ACCELERATING POLEWARD. AS ETT 
PROGRESSES, THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN 
EASTWARD PROPAGATING TROUGH AND STRONG JET. BY TAU 72, AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS UNDER THE AFORMENTIONED JET, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS 
WITH COLD SSTS (18C), AND TY 02W WILL BECOME FRONTAL IN NATURE AND 
DEVOID OF ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 117NM SPREAD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM VERSION) SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY 
AT TAU 12 FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WEAKENING TREND. COAMPS-TC (GFS 
VERSION) AND HWRF SHOW A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 12 
BEFORE A SHARP WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT FOLLOWING TAU 12 LENDS MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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