WDPN31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.4N 135.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 393 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE. SHORTLY AFTER THE 00Z SYNOPTIC HOUR, A FORMATIVE CLOUD-FILLED EYE APPEARED, WITH TOWERING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE INDICATING THAT A LONG-AWAITED RAPID INTESNIFICATION MAY FINALLY BE STARTING. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP, AND SUPPORTED BY A LOW RESOLUTION 112232Z NOAA-19 AMSU PASS WITH A BANDED CENTER. THE INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 70 KNOTS AT THE SYNOPTIC TIME, WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS BASED ON FINAL-T VALUES OF T4.0 (PGTW AND RJTD) TO T4.5 (RCTP AND KNES). ADT AND SATCON ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THE ENVELOPE AT 59 TO 62 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY, WHILE AIDT WAS 69 KNOTS AND THE MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS WAS 75 KNOTS. AN 112053Z SMAP PASS WAS SURPRISNGLY LOW AT 50 KNOTS, BUT PROVIDED A BASIS FOR THE 35 KNOT WIND RADII ASSESSMENT. TYPHOON MALAKAS IS ROUNDING A SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND IN PHASE WITH THE STEERING MOTION, AND DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF O2W NEARS THE MID-LATITUDE JET. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE FACTORS ARE POSITIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 59 KTS AT 112233Z CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 112340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AFTER WHICH THE STORM MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE IS RAISING THE LIKLIHOOD THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) MAY COMMENCE SHORTLY, IF THE NASCENT EYE CAN CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT. THE GFS AND HWRF BOTH DEPICT RAPID DEEPENING, REACHING MSLP MINIMA OF 947 AND 936 MB, RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL RI AIDS WERE TRIGGERED THIS CYCLE, SO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST INTENSITY TREND WAS INCREASED. A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS IS FORECAST AT TAU 36. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS REMAINED STEADY IN THE CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION, HOWEVER GFS NOW TRACKS 02W MUCH MORE QUICKLY IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR PERIOD, RESULTING IN A MARKED SHIFT IN THE CONSENSUS MEAN POSITION AT TAU 120. THE FORECAST POSIT FOR THAT TAU WAS ADJUSTED AHEAD SLIGTHLY, BUT MAY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR AFTER TAU 36. BY TAU 72, DRY AIR WILL FURTHER DISRUPT THE SYSTEM. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120 AS MALAKAS IS FULLY UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE JET. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. HOWEVER, GFS IS INDICATING A FASTER FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT. LIKEWISE, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 42 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN