WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.5N 135.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 334 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEEPENING ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE
CORE, AND WHILE THE EIR INDICATES SOME FRESH TOWERS FORMING OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE, IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX AND ANALYSIS OF 111652Z AMSR AND 111707Z GMI MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GMI DEPICTS THE
CENTRAL BANDING STRUCTURE WITH A POORLY DEFINED CORE. THE INTENSITY
WAS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK FIXES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO
77 KNOTS). ADT HAD BEEN TRAILING BUT IS NOW TRENDING UPWARDS TO 57
KNOTS AS OF 111940Z, WITH A RAW-T VALUE OF 3.8. CIMSS SATCON HAS
RISEN TO 63 KNOTS, AIDED BY A RECENT ATMS ESTIMATE. THE AMSR WIND
SPEED PRODUCT FOR THE 111652Z PASS INDICATED A MAXIMUM OF 55 KNOTS
LOCALIZED TO AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER,
WHICH IS DEEMED TO BE TOO LOW. TYPHOON MALAKAS IS SLOWING SLIGHTLY
AS IT ROUNDS A SUB-TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND IN PHASE WITH THE
STEERING MOTION, AND OUTFLOW IS OMNI-DIRECTIONAL AND IMPROVING AS
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF O2W IS NEARING THE MID-LATITUDE JET.
COMBINED WITH 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS, THESE FACTORS ARE POSITIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND PARTIAL
SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 63 KTS AT 111623Z
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 111740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE STR OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AFTER WHICH THE STORM MOTION SHOULD BEGIN
TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ONCE OUTFLOW FULLY
TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS IS CALLED FOR,
BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN BETWEEN THE TAU 36 TO TAU 48 PERIOD.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS REMAINED STEADY AND AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE CROSS-TRACK DIRECTION. THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY
IN THE ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL OCCUR AROUND TAU 48. BY TAU 72, DRY AIR
WILL FURTHER DISRUPT THE SYSTEM. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BEGIN BY TAU 96, AND BE COMPLETED BY TAU 120 AS MALAKAS IS FULLY
UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE JET. TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG
GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD.


MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. LIKEWISE, INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO
42 HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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