WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2N 135.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 315 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS
DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM
PGTW AND RCTP AND CONSISTENT WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYE. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT VWS, STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE 
NORTHEAST. THE STORM MOTION HAS SLOWED DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK 
BINARY INTERACTION
WITH TD 03W CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 111140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER
TAU 12, IT WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 
110KTS BY TAU 36 AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF 
THE STR AXIS WHERE DECREASED VWS AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE 
TO THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WILL ENHANCE 
THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. AFTER TAU 36, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. 
THIS PLUS THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY 
ERODE THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS. 
CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 96, TY 02W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION 
AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 120, WILL BECOME A 
STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 166NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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