WDPN32 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MEGI) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.4N 124.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 8 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS VERY RAGGED CONVECTION MOVING BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE VISAYAN SEA, NEAR THE COAST OF LEYTE ISLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS HEDGED LOWER THAN MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CEBU CITY, MAASIN, MASBATE, BORONGAN, AND CATARMAN. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS UNFAVORABLE, WITH STRONG VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY THE WARM SST. TD 03W REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE PHILIPPINE ISLAND CHAIN DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: QUASI-STATIONARY IN A SHALLOW TROUGH WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD MEGI WILL CONTINUE TURNING CLOCKWISE AND THEN TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 30KTS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SAMAR BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36. TD MEGI WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AS (TS 02W MALAKAS) MOVES WITHIN 540NM AND HAS A SLIGHT BINARY INTERACTION. THE REMNANTS OF TD 03W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT IS ABSORBED BY THE LARGER, STRONGER SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING THE VORTEX OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 36HRS BEFORE EJECTING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TS 02W. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A WIDESPREAD IN THE INITIAL 36-48HR TRAJECTORIES. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN