WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) 
WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.5N 136.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 203 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
SPIRAL-BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-TIMED BULLSEYE PASS FROM AN
110006Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS
HEDGED BETWEEN MULTIPLE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE TIGHTER WRAPPING AROUND THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS,
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 110006Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 102245Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 102340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MALAKAS IS STILL TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OUTFLOW FROM (TD 03W MEGI) WILL HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON TS MALAKAS. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUND THE STR AXIS, AND RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TS MALAKAS IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN FURTHER DURING THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS
BEFORE TAU 72. AFTERWARD, TS MALAKAS WILL ACCELERATE ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE STR AXIS AND GAIN A MORE PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ONCE THERE, IT WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING
HIGHER VWS, AN INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND BEGIN TO DECREASE INTENSITY TO 50KTS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN A VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL AND NARROW SPREAD TO 167NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW), LENDING
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN