WDPN31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.9N 136.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 160 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW CONSOLIDATING AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE EYE IDENTIFIED IN THE 101610Z AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED ON MULTIPLE AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE CONSTANT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A PARTIAL 101227Z ASCAT METOP-C. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 54 KTS AT 101552Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 101740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MALAKAS CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO AN INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AS IT SLOWLY JOGS TO THE NORTHWEST. MINIMAL IMPACT FROM A SECONDARY CYCLONE (TD 03W MEGI) TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS MALAKAS WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD, ROUND THE STR AXIS, THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE AXIS, IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, FUELING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, TS MALAKA WILL ACCELERATE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS AND GAIN A MORE PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, NEAR TAU 96, IT WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING HIGHER VWS, AN INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR, AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING. AT TAU 120, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 163NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW), LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN