WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING 
NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 12.4N 136.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES
TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A DEFINED
LLC IN THE 101007Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
55KTS IS BASED 
ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED 6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS, MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 101131Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 100840Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL JOG SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO A WEAK BINARY
INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY CYCLONE (TS 03W) TO THE WEST. AFTER
TAU 36, IT WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95KTS BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
STR AXIS, DECREASED VWS AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE
INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WILL ENHANCE THE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND BRING THE CYCLONE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF
100KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. THIS
PLUS THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE AT 60KTS. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU
120, TS 02W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 213NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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