WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING 
NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.9N 138.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 144 NM NORTH OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING, DEEPENED, AND MORE SYMMETRICAL 
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A DEFINED LLC IN THE 100355Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS BASED 
ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND 
REFLECTS THE IMPROVED 6-HR CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE 
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 100230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL JOG SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO A WEAK BINARY 
INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY CYCLONE (TS 03W) TO THE WEST. AFTER TAU 
36, IT WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS 
THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL 
AND FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, AS 
THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS, 
DECREASED VWS AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE INITIAL 
EXPOSURE INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WILL ENHANCE THE FAVORABLE 
DYNAMICS AND BRING THE CYCLONE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS BY 
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. THIS PLUS THE 
INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR AND COOLING SST WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM 
AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE AT 60KTS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 180NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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