WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MEGI) 
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.3N 126.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 353 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A REGION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LEYTE GULF. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGE AND MULTIPLE AGENCY FIX
POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS,
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST. THE CYCLONE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, NEAR THE LEYTE GULF,
WHERE IT IS EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW TROUGH WITH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: QUASI-STATIONARY IN A SHALLOW TROUGH
WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO
THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 092258Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 092350Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 03W MEGI REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE WARM
PHILIPPINE SEA AND BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST BY TAU 48.
CONGRUENTLY, THE PASSING TS 02W MALAKAS WILL BEGIN DRAWING THE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM TS MEGI AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
DIRECT INTERACTION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL WEAKEN TS MEGI AS IT
STARTS THE INITIAL DISSIPATION PROCESS. BY TAU 96 TS MEGI IS
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY ABSORBED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONTINUALLY INDICATING GREAT
DISPARITY IN THE NEAR TAUS UP TO TAU 36. THEREAFTER, THE MAJORITY
OF THE MEMBERS TRACK THE VORTEX EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INDICATE
DISSIPATION FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION WITH
THE LARGER TS 02W MALAKAS. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIABILITY IN THE FIRST
24-36HRS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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