WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) 
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.6N 140.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 109 NM NORTH OF FAIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 25 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 092136Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE BUT IN LINE WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW. THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE REMAINS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLC
WHICH HAS RAPIDLY MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSETTING THE MODERATE TO STRONG
VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND A PARTIAL ASCAT AT
100028Z

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 092136Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 092340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W MALAKAS CONTINUES ON A NORTHWEST TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AND THEN MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH (TS 03W MEGI) NOW
APPEARS AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH OF 550NM WITH A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY
AS TO WHETHER TS MALAKAS WILL BEGIN ABSORBING THE ENERGY BEFORE IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, OR JUST AFTER AT TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS
BY TAU 48. SOME INDICATIONS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCUR NEAR TAU
60 AS TS MALAKAS BEGINS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS. ONCE MALAKAS
ROUNDS THE RIDGE IT WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS AND
THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD IWO TO. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN
EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE DYNAMIC CHANGES FROM THE COOL DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND AN INCREASE OF VWS, DECAYING THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY
TO 80KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
NARROW 95NM SPREAD OUT TO TAU 72 AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS TO
270NM BY TAU 120. THE BINARY INTERACTION REMAINS A TOP CONCERN FOR
THE TRACK AND OVERALL TIMING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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