WDPN32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) 
WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 11.0N 126.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 378 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PERSISTENT REGION OF CONVECTION
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LEYTE GULF. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 091750Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
OVERALL EIR SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VWS, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SST. THE CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA,
NEAR THE LEYTE GULF, WHERE IT IS EMBEDDED IN A SHALLOW TROUGH WITH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE
SOUTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: QUASI-STATIONARY IN A SHALLOW TROUGH
WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS TO THE NORTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO
THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 34 KTS AT 091701Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 091740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCE IN
THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA AND BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST BY TAU 48.
DURING THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A BINARY INTERACTION
WITH TS 02W TO THE NORTHEAST AND BE DRAWN INTO THE LARGER AND
STRONGER CYCLONE. THIS BINARY INTERACTION WILL INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF TD 03W RESULTING IN WEAK INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 40KTS BY TAU 36 AND SUSTAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
ITS LIFESPAN AS A TC OUT TO TAU 72. TD 03W WILL FULLY DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96, IF NOT SOONER.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE CONTINUALLY INDICATING GREAT
DISPARITY IN THE NEAR TAUS UP TO TAU 36. THEREAFTER, THE MAJORITY
OF THE MEMBERS TRACK THE VORTEX EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INDICATE
DISSIPATION FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES BINARY INTERACTION WITH
THE LARGER TS 02W. GIVEN THE LARGE VARIABILITY IN THE FIRST 36HRS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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