WDPN31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.7N 142.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 89 NM EAST OF FAIS ISLAND, FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM BOTH 091717Z GMI 89GHZ AND 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES, ALONG WITH A LATER SET OF 091834Z SSMIS 89GHZ AND 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT IN LINE WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED AND IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLC. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSETTING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 091612Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 091740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL SLIGHTLY JOG TO THE WEST, AND SLOW AS IT BEGINS A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TD 03W. THE DISTANCE INDICATES NEARLY 590NM IN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TS 02W. TS MALAKAS WILL BEGIN ABSORBING THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE STR AXIS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS BY TAU 48. SOME INDICATIONS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCUR NEAR TAU 72 AS TS MALAKAS ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. IT IS AT THIS JUNCTURE TS 02W WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD IWO TO. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, WHERE IT WILL BEGIN EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE DYNAMIC CHANGES OF COOL DRY AIR AND AN INCREASE OF VWS, WHICH WILL BEGIN THE DECAYING PROCESS FOR TS 02W TO AN INTENSITY OF 80KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A VERY MODEST 117NM SPREAD OUT TO TAU 72 AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS TO 250NM BY TAU 120. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE TRACK AT THIS TIME IS THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH 03W. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN