WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 7.7N 143.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 349 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT WAS, SIX HOURS AGO, PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A DEFINED LLC IN THE 090547Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE CONVECTIVE
IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSETTING THE MODERATE TO
STRONG VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 090335Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 090540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL
JOG SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE (TD 03W) APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD IWO TO. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO 80KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, AS THE CYCLONE
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, DECREASED VWS AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WILL ENHANCE THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND BRING THE CYCLONE TO ITS
PEAK INTENSITY OF 95KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, VWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE. THIS PLUS THE INFLUX OF COOL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE THE SYSTEM AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE AT 70KTS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 238NM BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TD 02W,
THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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