WDPS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (FILI) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.3S 161.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 362 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON CLUSTERED AND
EQUAL AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, SUPPORTED BY AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VWS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND 
WARM SST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
STR TO THE
EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 050302Z
   CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 050230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC FILI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL CARRY UP TO TAU 36, PEAKING THE INTENSITY TO 60KTS. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50KTS BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, TC 23P WILL BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TO A
POLEWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL SPREAD TO 243NM BY TAU 72. NAVGEM IS
THE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER AND UKMET IS ON THE LEFT MARGIN. THERE
IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET A MORE UNLIKELY NAVGEM
TRACK SOLUTION.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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