WDXS32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING 
NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.2S 81.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1030 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND RAIN BANDS BEING 
SHEARED
SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 281112Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF 
AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OFFSET BY MODERATE TO
STRONG VWS AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE
NORTH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 280856Z
   CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 280615Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC HALIMA WILL TRACK EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD
AS THE NER RECEDES WESTWARD THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE AS STRONG VWS AND COLD DRY AIR
INTRUSION PERSIST, GRADUALLY ERODING THE SYSTEM TOWARD DISSIPATION 
BY TAU 36. 


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 24; AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN VARIOUS
DIRECTIONS WITH GFS AND AEMN ON ONE EXTREME LOOPING THE VORTEX
WESTWARD AND NAVGEM THE OTHER EXTREME CONTINUING ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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