WDXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HALIMA) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.7S 79.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 973 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ERODING AS IT
ENCROACHES UPON COOLER WATER AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE 280041Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE AND THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
MULTIPLE AGENCIES, THE AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, AND REFLECTS THE
DETERIORATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY
STRONG VWS AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE LOW LEVELS. TC 22S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 272315Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 280045Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC HALIMA HAS PROGRESSIVELY SLOWED OVER THE
LAST TWELVE HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK TO
THE EAST AND THEN TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 24, AS THE
STEERING OF THE NER EXTENDS WESTWARD. THE STRONG POLEWARD VENTING
WILL BE THE ONLY HELP FOR TC HALIMA AS ALL OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TOO HARSH AS TC 22S DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST DISSIPATING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 24; AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE IN OPPOSITE
DIRECTIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS INCLUDING ECMWF, GFS, AEMN, AND EEMN
LOOPING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD AND OTHER MEMBERS INCLUDING
NAVGEM, AND UKMET CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY.
GIVEN THESE, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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