WDXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING 
NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 38.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS TRACKED
DEEPER INLAND AS FEEDER BANDS, WRAPPING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND UNRAVEL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM INTENSITY BASED ON THE
PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORT FROM FMEE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-HR EIR CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE DEGRADATION. ALTHOUGH, VWS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE
BOTH FAVORABLE AND SUSTAINING THE REMNANT CONVECTION, THE SEVERE
IMPACT OF LAND INTERACTION AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES THE
ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: OVER LAND
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTENSITIES
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW 35 KTS;
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND
PHILOSOPHY. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TC
GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG INLAND THEN, BY TAU 24, THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION. THE REMNANT WILL RECURVE
SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STR AXIS. BY TAU 66, THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL NEAR QUELIMANE AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK UP TO TAU 36 ONLY. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOME MODELS INCLUDING NAVGEM, UEMN, UKMET, AND
AFUM KEEPING THE WEAK VORTEX OVER LAND IN AN ERRATIC REVERSE
NORTHWARD TRACK. MODELS THAT BRING THE WEAK VORTEX BACK INTO WATER
INCLUDE GFS, AEMN, AND UEMN. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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