WDXS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.2S 38.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 139 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS TRACKED DEEPER INLAND AS FEEDER BANDS, WRAPPING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND UNRAVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM INTENSITY BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT FROM FMEE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-HR EIR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DEGRADATION. ALTHOUGH, VWS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE BOTH FAVORABLE AND SUSTAINING THE REMNANT CONVECTION, THE SEVERE IMPACT OF LAND INTERACTION AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: OVER LAND OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTENSITIES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW 35 KTS; OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, TC GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG INLAND THEN, BY TAU 24, THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION. THE REMNANT WILL RECURVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 66, THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR QUELIMANE AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UP TO TAU 36 ONLY. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOME MODELS INCLUDING NAVGEM, UEMN, UKMET, AND AFUM KEEPING THE WEAK VORTEX OVER LAND IN AN ERRATIC REVERSE NORTHWARD TRACK. MODELS THAT BRING THE WEAK VORTEX BACK INTO WATER INCLUDE GFS, AEMN, AND UEMN. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN