WDXS31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.4S 49.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 237 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL RAIN BANDS HAVING JUST MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR NEAR THE ANTONGIL BAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 080328Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE NEAREST OBSERVATIONS, WHICH ONLY INDICATE 15KTS. HOWEVER, THE NEAREST OBSERVATION IS OVER 60NM AWAY FROM THE LLC. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED WITH ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES JUST BEFORE THE SYSTEM MADE INITIAL LANDFALL. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VWS, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH AND A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 080329Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 080415Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: OVER LAND OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TRANSITING OVER MADAGASCAR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24, THEN BEGIN INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK OF 70KTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. SHORTLY AFTER REACHING THE PEAK INTENSITY, TC 19S WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNTIL IT REACHES THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE JUST SOUTH OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. THEREAFTER, TC 19S WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND WEAKEN TO 30KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT, BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL TRACK OVER LAND, THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS NEAR THE ECMF TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE INTENSITY DUE TO THE HIGH OHC IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GFS, HWRF, AND COTC INDICATE A PEAK OF 100KTS JUST AFTER LANDFALL, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN