WDXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING 
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 88.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1003 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC 14S IS UNDERGOING A BINARY INTERACTION WITH 93S PRESENTLY 210NM
TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE CAPTURE PERIOD, TC 14S HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT IS NO LONGER
EXHIBITING AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING BOTH THE 261313Z SSMIS 91GHZ AND 37GHZ IMAGE WHICH
INDICATES A SLIGHT MICROWAVE EYE AT EACH LEVEL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRIMARILY BASED ON
MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES HELD BY CONSTRAINTS AND THE ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   FIMP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 93 KTS AT 260729Z
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 261215Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY REACHED A PEAK 
INTENSITY AT 115KTS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE 
FUJIWHARA INTERACTION OF 93S TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 
HOURS. INVEST 93S WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TC 
14S, WHILE TC 14S WILL MOVE IN A MORE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. BY TAU 24 
THE FUJIWHARA WILL BE NEAR COMPLETE, AND TC 14S WILL ROUND THE STR 
AXIS REINTENSIFY, AND BEGIN A MORE SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY. 
CONCURRENTLY, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL ERODE THE 
STRENGTH OF THE STR, ALLOWING TC 14S TO TURN POLEWARD AND ACCELERATE 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 14S IS 
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. FROM TAU 48 AND BEYOND, 
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FUJIWHARA
INTERACTION WITH 93S FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY UNRELIABLE WITH GFS AND HWRF 
INDICATING A NEAR-TERM WEAKENING TREND DESPITE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WEAKENING. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SIGNIFICANTLY 
ABOVE CONSENSUS BUT DOES REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72, 
WHICH MOST MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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