WDXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 90.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1172 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 16 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 39 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC 14S HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH
THE INTENSITY INCREASING AT LEAST 25 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
AGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED PINHOLE EYE OF 4NM DIAMETER. AT
1200Z THE EYE MEASURED SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 10NM WIDE. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE 
IN A 260037Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE PRIMARILY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE FORECASTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND ITS PROGRESSION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH OHC WATERS AND STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   APRF: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 252340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: PEAK FORECAST INTENSITY IS NOW 130
KTS, PREVIOUSLY 105 KTS.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE BINARY INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S,
CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200NM TO THE NORTHWEST. INVEST 93S
WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL CLOSER AS TC 14S PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO FUJIWARA ABOUT ONE ANOTHER WITH TC 14S
ABSORBING THE SMALLER SYSTEM COMPLETELY SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.
AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL ERODE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR TC 14S TO TURN POLEWARD AND 
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU 36, PEAKING 
AS IT MERGES WITH 93S. AROUND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO 
EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING 
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO TRACK FORECAST WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE FUJIWARA
INTERACTION WITH 93S FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TRACK.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY UNRELIABLE WITH GFS AND HWRF
INDICATING A NEAR-TERM WEAKENING TREND DESPITE THE RECENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE CONSENSUS, BUT DOES REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND
AFTER TAU 72 MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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