WDXS32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.0S 127.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 195 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
SYSTEM WITH TWO REGIONS OF CONVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER BEING ASSESSED UNDER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED A 260024Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED-CIRCULATION WITH 45 KT WINDS AT THE
CENTER AND A BROAD FIELD OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   ADRM: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 252340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15S HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWARD, INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY TO 50 KTS.
AROUND TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
BUILD, STEERING TC 15S TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE KIMBERLY COAST.
THE RIDGE WILL REORIENT AND PUSH THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST DOWN THE
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 40-45KTS FROM TAU 36 TO TAU
72. AFTERWARDS, IT WILL BEGIN TO DEPART FROM THE COASTLINE AND
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 55 KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS CURRENTLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A GENERAL LONG-TERM FORECAST
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DOWN THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. HOWEVER,
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT. GFS DOES NOT FURTHER
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM, WHILE HWRF AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO AFTER TAU 96. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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