WDXS32 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (ANIKA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.0S 127.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 195 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A REGION OF DEEP, COLD CONVECTION WITH SOME CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH KNES, ADRM, AND ADT FIXES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING PATTERN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ADRM: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 251740Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF WITHIN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, TC 13S SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AROUND TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD, STEERING TC 15S TO THE WEST OVER CAPE TALBOT. BY TAU 72, THE RIDGE WILL REORIENT AND PUSH THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST DOWN THE KIMBERLY COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 13S WILL REACH 50 KTS AROUND TAU 12 AND MAY DECREASE TO 45 KNOTS AFTERWARDS AS LAND INTERACTION SLIGHTLY HINDERS THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 45-50KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: THERE IS CURRENTLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM DOING A LOOP IN THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF BEFORE HEADING WEST AND DECREASING IN INTENSITY. ECMWF CURRENTLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE KIMBERLY COAST WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THIS IS DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM ECMWF MODELS RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WHICH KEPT THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN