WDPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DOVI) WARNING NR 
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.0S 166.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (35 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
FROM 40 KNOTS TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF 
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED, ELONGATED 25NM EYE. A 
101001Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY 
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS IT TRACKED AWAY 
FROM NEW CALEDONIA WITH DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE 
EYE. TC 11P PASSED DIRECTLY OVER MOUE ISLE OF PINES (91596), WHICH 
REPORTED A MINIMUM SLP OF 972.5MB AT 101000Z. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNANIMOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS 
ADT AND CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   NFFN: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 74 KTS AT 101002Z
   CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 101140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P (DOVI) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. NO LONGER 
HINDERED BY LAND, TC 11P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS ITS EYE WALL CONSOLIDATES WITHIN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (27-28C), 
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10KTS), AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WILL 
ALLOW TC 11P TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER 
TAU 12, MID-LEVEL VWS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY AND SST VALUES WILL 
COOL TO 25-26C, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 24, 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL COMMENCE AS TC 11P BEGINS TO 
INTERACT WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING MIDLATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 36, TC 11P WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS VWS INCREASES (35 TO 40 KNOTS) AND SST VALUES
COOL TO 23C. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE JET AND WILL GAIN CLEAR
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 58NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. THE 
100600Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) STRIKE PROBABILITY OUTPUT SUPPORTS THE 
JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LANDFALL OCCURRING 
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE FOR TC 11P IS SPLIT INDICATING EITHER A WEAKENING TREND 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AS EVIDENCED 
BY THE TRIGGERING OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION AID 
(RIPA). DECAY SHIPS (GFS) INDICATES A PEAK OF 92 KNOTS AT TAU 24 
BEFORE WEAKENING. CONSIDERING THE RI TREND, TRIGGERING OF RIPA AND 
PGTW 101430Z DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS), THE JTWC INTENSITY 
FORECAST IS PLACED HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH A PEAK OF 
95 KNOTS AT TAU 12. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PEAK 
INTENSITY AND TIMING, WITH A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY POSSIBLE.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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