WDPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DOVI) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.2S 167.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 100 NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED EYE, AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS FIRING IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY AND A 100556Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOW A BROAD EYE (APROXIMATELY 45NM DIAMETER) WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE EYE IS
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLE OF PINES (91596) AS OF 100800Z,
WHICH IS REPORTING LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A SLP OF 974.1MB 
(CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 65 KNOT INTENSITY). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 
60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 
DVORAK FIXES BY PGTW, KNES, PHFO AND FMEE. BOTH ADT AND THE AIDT
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND NOW RANGE FROM 
71 TO 75 KNOTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   PHFO: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 62 KTS AT 100223Z
   CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 100610Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION
TREND, PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS AT TAU 24. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P (DOVI) IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS IT CLEARS THE ISLANDS OF NEW CALEDONIA WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
(28-29C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10KTS), AND RADIAL
OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 11P TO PEAK AT 85 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, VWS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY AND SST VALUES
WILL COOL TO 25-26C, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. AFTER TAU
36, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL COMMENCE AS TC 11P BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING MIDLATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 48, TC 11P WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS VWS INCREASES (35 TO 40 KNOTS) AND SST VALUES COOL
TO 22C. NEAR TAU 60, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE JET AND WILL GAIN CLEAR
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 58NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THE 100000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS)
STRIKE PROBABILITY OUTPUT SUPPORTS THE JTWC TRACK PHILOSOPHY WITH A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF LANDFALL OCCURRING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATES EITHER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TREND
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, DECAY SHIPS (GFS) AND COAMPS-TC
(GFS) REVEAL A STEEPER INTENSIFICATION TREND WITH A PEAK OF 68-79
KNOTS. CONSIDERING THE SHARP INCREASE IN ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES AS
WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAGGED EYE, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS PLACED ABOVE THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY
WITH A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY POSSIBLE.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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