WDPS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (DOVI) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.2S 169.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 227 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY EXPANDED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A LARGE, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE 090945Z GPM 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HOUR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND WARM (S8-29C)
SST OFFSET BY WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL
BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COL BETWEEN NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   NFFN: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 091023Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 091140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING
AND DRIVE TC 11P SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 36.
THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, COOLING
SST AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU
72. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL BECOME A STRONG STORM-FORCE
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREADING TO A MERE 175NM AT TAU 72. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM MOTION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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