WDXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNING 
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4S 83.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 985 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. A 050300Z GMI
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND THAT THE LLCC NOW LIES
UNDER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PGTW, FMEE AND FIMP DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES AND THE FINAL-T ESTIMATES RANGING 
FROM T2.0 (30 KNOTS)-T2.5 (35 KNOTS) THAT REFLECT THE WEAKENING,
FRAGMENTED STRUCTURE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) TO THE EAST AND SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: CI 3.0 - 45 KTS
   FMEE: CI 3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: CI 3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 050615Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 10S (CLIFF) IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE STR WILL REORIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY
AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH AN 85NM SPREAD
AT TAU 48 SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IN GENERAL, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE 
INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW).   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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