WDXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.4S 53.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A BROAD, RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 040011Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL FROM THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED TO CONSTRICT AS THE MICROWAVE EYE IS
40 NM IN DIAMETER COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER WHEN IT WAS 50
NM IN A 032128Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105KTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 113 KTS AT 032142Z
   CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 032115Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-15 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL JUST BEFORE TAU
72. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY TO 110 KTS AROUND TAU 12 AS THE EYEWALL CONTINUES TO
CONSTRICT AND THEN DECREASE TO 100 KTS AT TAU 36 AS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE WIND FIELD BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL DECREASE TO 45 KTS AS IT CROSSES OVER LAND AND THEN
REINTENSIFY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, REACHING 55 KTS BY TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN
REGARDS TO THE TRACK FORECAST WITH A 50 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
TAU 72 AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING OUT AFTERWARDS AS THE SYSTEM
TURNS SOUTH. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR MAINTAINING
CURRENT INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND THEN MAINTAINING AROUND
45-50KTS IN INTENSITY IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS GFS, WHICH MAKES LANDFALL AT A
LOWER INTENSITY OF 80 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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