WDXS31 PGTW 031500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.2S 54.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 81 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 52 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE, 
HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A 10-NM 
SHARPLY OUTLINED PINHOLE EYE THAT HAS JUST COMPLETED EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENT.THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON 
THE EYE,ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 031033Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE SUSTAINED 6-HR
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED
INTO A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SST
AND MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT)
VWS. TC 08S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 118 KTS AT 030942Z
   CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 031215Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
CENTRAL MADAGASCAR AROUND TAU 48, CROSS THE ISLAND, AND EXIT INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL JUST AFTER TAU 72. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. THE MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 85KTS
BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE IT DOWN
TO 45KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE WARM SST IN
THE CHANNEL WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 55KTS BY TAU 96;
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN IT TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 188NM BY TAU 120, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 72 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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