WDXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.1S 55.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 87 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 43 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, WEAKENING SPIRAL
BANDING, AND A 20 NM WIDE EYE. TC 08S IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS EVIDENT BY THE CONSTRICTING OUTER
EYEWALL IN A 030024Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ADT, AND SATCON.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   FMEE: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   FIMP: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 123 KTS AT 022111Z
   CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 022115Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST. TC 08S IS FORECAST WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 105 KNOTS DUE TO THE EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). AFTER
THE COMPLETION OF ERC AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REINTENSIFY TO ABOUT 115 KNOTS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND REACH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KTS BY TAU 120..

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GIVING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ENTIRE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL,
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING
SOME TYPE OF WEAKENING DUE TO ERC AND ALSO A INTENSIFICATION
PERIOD IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. OF NOTE, GFS DOES NOT REINTENSIFY
AFTER ERC, INDICATING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 85 KTS AT LANDFALL OVER
MADAGASCAR. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN