WDPS32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 158.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 15 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 552 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 7 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK,
POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION
AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 15 KNOTS ARE BASED OFF A 2313Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE SHOWING A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 15 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH
SIDE AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
THERE IS NO PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AS THE SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS TOO WEAK FOR A T1.0. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW RESTRICTED DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MASS OF DRY
AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 022058Z
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 022340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE UNTIL TAU 48, AT
WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE
REORIENTS. A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SOMETIME AFTER TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT WIL BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND THE CORE
ENVIRONMENT MOISTENS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL CURRENTLY IN SPLIT
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO FORECAST TRACK WITH NVGM, EGRR, AND UEMN
PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS AND EC AND GFS PASSING TO THE
NORTH WITH GFS JUST 60 NM SOUTH OF PORT VILA. THIS RESULTS IN A 220
NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 WHICH CONTINUES TO EXPAND
AFTERWARDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS INDICATING
SOME TYPE OF INTENSIFICATION HAPPENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT THE RATE AND MAGNITUDE VARY. GFS STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE
SYSTEM, HWRF JUMPS 25 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND EC DOES NOT
INTENSIFY AT ALL AND SIMPLY TRACKS A WEAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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