WDXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.9S 56.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 125 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 47 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT LOUIS INDICATES AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS UNDERWAY AS INDICATED IN THE UW-CIMSS
M-PERC PRODUCT. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THAT THE SMALL INNER
EYEWALL IS ERODING AS THE OUTER EYEWALL STRENGTHENS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING CLOUD
TOPS AND WEAKENING SPIRAL BANDING. ALTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAIN STEADY AT T6.5 (127 KNOTS) AT 021200Z, THE SYSTEM APPEARED
TO PEAK NEAR 020600-020630Z WITH UNOFFICIAL DVORAK ESTIMATES ALMOST
REACHING T7.0 (140 KNOTS). HOWEVER, TC 08S IS CLEARLY WEAKENING
SINCE THAT TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING ERC WITH THE 021245Z UNOFFICIAL
DVORAK ESTIMATE AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS). ADT ESTIMATES PEAKED EARLIER
AT 122 KNOTS (6.3) AND HAVE MAINTAINED THIS LEVEL THROUGH 021245Z.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR 021200Z IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE AS WELL AS THE
CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR, WHICH SHOWS A ROUND 8NM EYE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   FMEE: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 131 KTS AT 021001Z
   CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 021215Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TO ABOUT 110 KNOTS DUE TO THE ERC.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THE ERC COMPLETES AND
SHOULD REINTENSIFY TO ABOUT 115 KNOTS AT TAU 36. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PHASE OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT
APPROACHES MADAGASCAR WITH RAPID WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND REALIGN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL, INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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