WDPS32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNING NR 
006 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.0S 154.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 492 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 03 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
JTWC ASSESSES THAT TC 09P HAS DROPPED BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING
THRESHOLD. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REDEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, JTWC WILL CONTINUE ISSUING WARNINGS ON
THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A DISORGANIZED AND WEAK CIRCULATION, CENTERED JUST EAST OF AN AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ANALYSIS OF RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE
IMAGERY, A 012325Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 012230Z ASCAT-B
BULLSEYE PASS FORCED A RELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION,
APPROXIMATELY 60NM NORTHWEST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION AT THE
020000Z HOUR. IN LIGHT OF THE NEW DATA, THE CURRENT INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ASCAT-B PASS WHICH SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN A BROAD ARC
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. NO AGENCIES ARE CURRENTLY FIXING ON THE SYSTEM,
THOUGH THE OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON REMAIN UNREASONABLY HIGH BASED
ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AND THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VWS AND WARM SSTS OFFSET BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 011952Z
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 012340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AND AT PRESENT,
INDEPENDENT OF THE RECENT FLARE UP IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INDICATED IN THE HWRF MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND
THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AT THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW, ARE
DEFEATING THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A BROAD NER TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATE ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING MORE SHARPLY POLEWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS THE DRY AIR AND UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE REGION WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CONTENT, LOW
VWS AND IMPROVED DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55
KNOTS BY TAU 96. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY TAU 120 AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST, BUT DISPLAYS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. SPREAD IS A MARGINAL 105NM AT
TAU 72, BUT INCREASES TO 310NM BY TAU 120. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE
GENERAL TRACK INCLUDING THE TURN POLEWARD AT TAU 120, BUT DIFFER ON
THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. UKMET AND EGRR REMAIN THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHILE NAVGEM AND GFS REMAIN MARKING THE EQUATORWARD
BOUNDARY OF THE ENVELOPE. THE JTWC TRACK LIES JUST NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MEAN, BUT DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION
AND THE INDUCED UNCERTAINTY THE BRINGS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS
INDICATING A FLAT INTENSITY OR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM, FOLLOWED BY SLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE
JTWC FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HWRF PEAK OF 60 KNOTS, BUT
ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 36. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM IN THE NEAR-TERM BECOMING LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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