WDXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2S 60.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TC 08S HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND BRIEFLY FORMED A
RAGGED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY (AND ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY), HOWEVER, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
NOW INDICATES THE EYE FEATURE FILLED IN OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS. A
010909Z PARTIAL AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A 20NM DIAMETER
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WHICH ALONG WITH RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE 010928Z SATCON
ESTIMATE. THE 34-KNOT, 50-KNOT AND 64-KNOT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED
BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 010547Z ASCAT-B IMAGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 89 KTS AT 010928Z
   CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 010915Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR TO THE SOUTH. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
STEADILY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND SHOULD REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS AT TAU 72 ALTHOUGH A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND REALIGN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD A BREAK
IN THE STR. TC 08S WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96 AND IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT TRANSITS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A 65NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 THUS THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SLIGHTLY WITH MARKED DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED THUS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NAVGEM, THE SOLE OUTLIER, WHICH
STALLS THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. COAMPS-TC
INDICATES A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY OF 115-120 KNOTS BUT THE BULK OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE JTWC INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND HWRF PEAK AROUND 100-105 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.   

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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