WDXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.4S 64.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 466 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PULSING
CONVECTION REMAINING INTACT OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DESPITE
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A DIMPLE FEATURE HAS
APPEARED IN SEVERAL IMAGES, BUT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET REDEVELOPED
A BONA-FIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON 302320Z SSMIS PASS SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
CONSERVATIVELY PLACED SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECENT AGENCY SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS ANALYSES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 68 KTS AT 302116Z
   CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 310015Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS IN RESPONSE TO TRANSIENT
MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD COMPONENT TO STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 96, AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING
RIDGE. CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, BUT PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL LIMIT THE
WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REINTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A LESS FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AND POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WILL INDUCE A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL PORTION OF
THE TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LANDFALL IN CENTRAL MADAGASCAR,
AND THE REMAINING GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MAJOR GROUPING TO THE SOUTH
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AS WELL, BUT THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO CHANGING
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION ADD
SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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