WDXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) 
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.8S 66.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 538 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH 
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE FORMATION OF A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PINHOLE EYE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
300931Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE, THE HALFWAY POINT FROM THE LAST BEST
TRACK POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES (SEE BELOW) AND
REFLECTS THE 6-HR CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A
HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND WARM ALONG-TRACK SST IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FMEE: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   FIMP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 300917Z
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 301215Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 05-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE
STR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENED BY A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
RESULTING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO 100KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE ENTRY OF COOLER
DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL SLIGHTLY TEMPER AND SUSTAIN THE
INTENSITY AT 95KTS UP TO TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL ASSIST IN RE-INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110KTS BY TAU
96 BEFORE WEAKENING TO 90KTS AS VWS INCREASES AND LAND INTERACTION,
WITH THE APPROACH INTO MADAGASCAR, BEGINS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 250NM AT TAU 120, LENDING MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE 
MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST UP TO TAU 72; AFTERWARD, LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE 
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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